Context

According to the National Institute of Statistics (INS), Tunisia’s national herd of sheep, goats and cattle fell from about 8.37 million head in 2016 to 5.94 million in 2022. Faced with this collapse, the Ministry of Agriculture unveiled in early July 2026 a livestock recovery plan for 2026-2030.

The authorities point to recurring drought as one of the main drivers: less rain means pastures dry out and fodder runs short, forcing herders to buy ever more expensive imported feed.

Why it matters

This is not just a matter for herders. Livestock accounts for 38% of agricultural GDP and supports 22% of the sector’s workforce. When the herd shrinks, the whole chain tightens: the average price of a ewe rose from around 240-300 dinars in 2010 to nearly 2,500 dinars in early 2026, and red-meat production fell by 10%.

Climate drought thus turns, at the dinner table, into meat that is scarcer and dearer for Tunisian families. And a herd, unlike a factory, cannot be rebuilt in a year: it takes several breeding cycles. The toll of a dry decade will be paid over the next one.

On the roots of this vulnerability: Understand Why Tunisia is particularly exposed

Context

Since the night of 5 to 6 July, SONEDE has activated an emergency periodic distribution protocol across the whole Sahel. In practice: a total cut-off from midnight to 5 a.m., every night, for the whole summer, in Sousse, Monastir and Mahdia.

The cause is an unprecedented crisis at the Nebhana dam, which supplies the region. The nighttime cut-offs serve to rebuild the reserves of the water towers to get through the day.

Why it matters

There has been much talk of a “respite” after the rains of winter 2025-2026 and dams back above 60%. But this respite is misleading.

The water crisis in Tunisia is not cyclical — a mere bad year — it is structural. The country has gone from 850 m³ of fresh water per inhabitant in 1996 to about 450 m³ today, below the absolute-scarcity threshold set at 500 m³. A good rainy season does not change this underlying trajectory.

Context

The Tunisian dam system, concentrated in the north of the country, is the main reserve of surface water. After several consecutive years of below-average rainfall, the accumulated stock has not been able to rebuild. The winter inflows only partly offset the withdrawals, and summer evaporation is speeding up the decline.

This level lies well below the average of the last decade for the same period.

Why it matters

The dam water supplies both the drinking water of several large cities and irrigation. When the stock falls, the trade-offs harden: rationing, rolling cut-offs, restrictions on irrigation. Tunisia already ranks among the countries below the water-scarcity threshold defined at the international level.

To understand why the country is so exposed, see our reference explainer: Understand Why Tunisia is particularly exposed

Context

Heatwaves are nothing new in Tunisia, but their earliness and their frequency are changing. Episodes once seen at the height of summer now occur as early as June, driven by surges of hot air from the Sahara.

This kind of anomaly is part of an underlying trend: the Mediterranean basin is warming faster than the global average.

Why it matters

More intense and longer heat weighs on health — especially for the elderly and outdoor workers — on electricity demand for air conditioning, and on crops. It also accelerates the evaporation of water reserves, already under strain.

To place such an episode, one still has to tell a one-off hot spell apart from a shift in the climate: Understand Weather or climate: what's the difference?

Context

Tunisian cereals — durum wheat, common wheat, barley — are mostly grown rain-fed, that is, without irrigation, and therefore depend directly on the winter and spring rains. A spring that is too dry at the wrong moment is enough to compromise yields, even if the annual rainfall total looks adequate.

Why it matters

A poor harvest is a double bill: falling income for farmers, and rising cereal imports to cover consumption. This increases the country’s food dependence and exposes it further to surges in world prices.

This sensitivity to the rains is one of the concrete faces of Tunisia’s exposure to climate disruption: Understand Why Tunisia is particularly exposed